Well well well...the Patriots are finally playing in the playoffs against a worthy opponent and guess what...a 16-0 season is still not leaving everyone convinced. A ton of fans and experts alike are picking Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars to easily cover this spread. Well, too many people are backing the Jaguars here in my opinion. There are two keys to this game going either way to the spread. Let's look at that quick.

1) This spread will be covered by the team that can win the battle of the Jaguars running game. The Patriots have been susceptible to, if anything, great running backs. We all saw the way that Willis McGahee of the Ravens controlled the clock and the game as the lowly Ravens should have beaten the Patriots...and we all saw the way that Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants were able to control the clock and the game as the upstart Giants should have beaten the Patriots...well, this spread will come down to the RB's of the Jaguars. They have been hot. That is no lie. They have been hot. However, too many people are looking past this match up. The Patriots are being told over and over and over again that good running teams have a chance to beat them. Well, everyone wants to look past this match up. Not me. No one is giving credit to the Patriots defense. Well, guess again, this is the game the Patriots in my opinion put aside all of those negative rumors about their run defense. They will win this battle and players like Bruschi and Harrison will show up big here to help stop the Jaguars running game. This will help the Patirots cover this spread.

2) The Jaguars are weakest in what area??? With the loss of S Deon Grant to Seattle in free agency during the off season, the secondary of the Jaguars has weakened. This is a huge huge factor in this game. If you watched last weekends game against the Steelers, the Jaguars got up by 18 and looked to have easily covered the 2.5 point spread. Well guess what, the Steelers came roaring back and nearly won the game. How do you think they did that? The best thing that could have happened to the Steelers in that game is that they could have gotten down by 13 or so points and then started to throw the ball like crazy. Well, they almost did that. However, they got down by 18 points, THEN decided to throw the ball like crazy. They made a huge comeback on the Jaguars and were actually leading this game by a point with only minutes to go. The Jaguars were able to secure the FG and the game. The point here is that, as soon as the Steelers starting using 3 and 4 WR sets, they started to kill the Jaguars. Well, this week, the Patriots are one of the smartest teams in the NFL, with one of the smartest coaches in NFL history (cheater or not). The Patriots will not wait until they are down by 18 points to spread out the Jaguars. They will do it on drive 1 of the game. The very first time the Patriots touch the ball, they will spread out the Jaguars, and don't be surprised if they decide to go to a no huddle offense right away either to confuse this Jaguars defense.

Overall, the most popular pick this weekend is the Jaguars to cover this spread. Well, I don't go off of conventional thinking, because those people are usually wrong..and very wrong at that. I look for this game to go like the game last week did for the Jaguars when they got up 18 points. They lost the game from that point by a score of 16 points. Imagine the better offense of the Patriots seeing that all you have to do is spread out the ball and you will kill this Jaguars defense. That will happen on Sunday, and the Jaguars are going to be toast. This game will be over before it starts.

Pick:Patriots -13.5
Odds: 1.95 @
Stake:7/10