Smart Betting

[mariusrec]

Similar to the French Open 2009 topic I'm starting a new one here for the Wimbledon 2009.

I will be covering the tournament and posting my profit/loss progression.

Similar to the Frech Open, I will be aiming to make my profit by trading a lot (in fact all my results will be from my Betfair account) and using the precious statistics that help any punter/trader make a profit on the long term.

The first and most profitable statistic for me is the fact that seeds do lose.The so called "surprises" do happen. The fact is that tennis players are humans too, and you just can't know when they will have a bad day and even if they are huge favorites they can lose.

Another statistic is a comebacks from 2-0.Each Grand Slams has to have comebacks from 2 sets down. In most cases, there are two players that play similar tennis and one player just happens to get the first 2 sets, but in these matches it is obvious that the difference between the two players is not that big and anything can happen. A perfect example is that Gasquet v Murray match from last year's Wimbledon. A more recent example is the Haas v Federer match from this year's French Open. Also take in consideration that players that have lost 2-0 lead are more likely to fall again and players that have had comebacks in the past are more likely to have comebacks in the future.

For the first 2-3 days I'll be looking to see how things go, and I will not be looking to make any large profits, unless some opportunities arise.

Also I saw that r3ds has already posted two tips for today : Almagro v Monaco and Mirza v Gronefeld

Any other comments or opinions are welcomed.

[r3ds]

Yes first and second round matches are pretty boring anyway since most of the odds are too miserable to contemplate backing on. Coincidentally, one of the players that I had tipped to win did win in the similar fashion that you were talking about above.

[mariusrec]

Yes first and second round matches are pretty boring anyway since most of the odds are too miserable to contemplate backing on. Coincidentally, one of the players that I had tipped to win did win in the similar fashion that you were talking about above.

Yes, Almagro indeed did have a 2-0 comeback.

Congratulations on the winning tips for the first day.

[mariusrec]

Well, we are now in week 2 at Wimbledon, and so far we have had some great matches.
So far , so good, as I managed to make a profit until now.
630 gbp to be exact. Could have made a lot more, but grass is not the surface on which I feel I can make a most money.

Today we have 4 matches :

Safina v Lisicki

This should be an interesting match. Lisicki is one of the young talents out there. This year he won at Charlston against very good player. Since then she hasn't managed to match that performance but she is still young. Here in the grass, another fast court, he managed to do well and reach this stage of the competition. He has one of the fastest serves on the WTA tour and I expect her to create one or two problems for Safina, if not even win the match.

Azarenka v S Williams

If I am not mistaken, these two players already met two time this year. First at the Australian Open where Azarenka won the first set but had to retire due to the heat, and the second time in the Miami final where Azarenka won.Looking at the women who are still in the competition I see only Azarenka or Venus being able to win against Serena. But Azarenka did look a little tired yesterday and did not play the best match of her life.
If Azarenka is in top shape she can get the win here, otherwise I really favor Serena.

V Williams v Radwanska

At the moment I can't see Radwanska winning this one.
Also the odds on Venus have no value, so I think I will just watch the match.
No bets for me here.

Schiavone v Dementieva

It seems to me that Dementieva has been growing in confidence with every match played on grass this season.
But her serve is still a big liability, especially here on grass.
Dementieva is the more experienced player, but I wouldn't be surprised if Schiavone manages to win.

[r3ds]

I saw your picks but most of the matches are almost pretty obvious to decide the winners before hand and the risk of choosing the underdog at times are just too high. Maybe you can try picking on the set betting or correct set scoring option to maximise your gains?

[mariusrec]

I saw your picks but most of the matches are almost pretty obvious to decide the winners before hand and the risk of choosing the underdog at times are just too high. Maybe you can try picking on the set betting or correct set scoring option to maximise your gains?

Yes, going to other markets like set betting and correct score can maximize profits, especially on tennis, and I know a lot of friends that apply this method.

Only, I am more of a live trader/bettor on the betting exchanges, and as the match odds markets are the most liquid I tend to focus on them.
If I were strictly a bettor I would definitely focus on the other markets and options as well, only then there is the problem that most bookmakers don't allow you to stake more that $ 200 on any of these markets.

[mariusrec]

Well, yesterday we saw Federer get his 15th Grand Slam, winning another 5 sets epic final.

Overall, I managed to make a profit from this year's Wimbledon, but I feel I could have done better.
I got involved in some doubles matches, which initially were profitable, but in the end caused a loss in my overall profit.

wimbledon profit.JPG (38.57 KB) Viewed 296 times

The P&L states that my exact profit is 502.73 gbp, which is good that it is a profit and is bad because it's not a larger sum.
Good Luck to everyone in future bets/trades!!!