The first thing that caught my eye for this match were the odds.

Blake is favorite for this match, and I see no strong reason for that. I suppose the two consecutive matches won on clay here at Estoril have something to do with it. But as far as I'm concerned, the two wins are not so important. The first match was against Gil, a player with a lot of ambition and some qualities, but with lack of experience. The second match was against Frenchman M. Gicqeul, a player which is starting to show his age. Prior to this clay court tournament, Blake has played 2 more this season, one in Houston where he lost in the first match against Canas and the second tournament is the Rome Masters 1000 event in which he was defeated by Romanian qualifier V. Crivoi.

Blake's opponent will be another Frenchman, F. Serra. I would qualify Serra's game similar to the one Gil is playing, only Serra has much more experience to rely on.So far this season, Serra has played a few clay court tournaments, from which he even reached a final in Casablanca.The other 2 tournaments where the Masters 1000 events where he had an unlucky draw and played Karlovic in Monte Carlo and Stepanek in Rome.The last match here in Estoril was played against J. Monaco, and that win should give his a boost in confidence, as Monaco has been playing great tennis recently.

So, even with a small to medium stake, I have to place a bet here on Serra.I just can't trust Blake on a clay court.