Probable starting eleven: (source ibetbook)

Nacional:
Bracalli, Tomasevic, Danielson, Filipe Lopes, Patacas, Luis Alberto, Bruno Amaro, Skolnick, Diego Barcelos, Edgar, Mateus.

Leiria:
Gottardi, Patrick, Ze Antonio, Bruno Miguel, Vinicius, Marcos Paulo, Leandro Lima, Diogo Amado, Pateiro, Joao Silva, Fabricio Simoes.


I think Nacional is closer to the victory here from two reasons. The main reason is Leiria poor form. In the second part of the season, Leiria lost three games and played just one draw. Even more, the goal difference at the same period is 1:9. Plus, Leiria have some unavailable players – Zhang, Obradovic and Panandetiguiri are injured, Paulo Sergio is suspended, while Marco Soares is doubtful. Obradovic is lon term injured, but the remaining four players are very important. Do not forget Leiria lost some other good players during January transfer period. So, I don’t expect Leiria to stay unbeaten at Madeira.

The second reason is Nacional. They are decent team and they are specially good at home. Just look the last home results:

16.01.2011. Nacional - Rio Ave 1:0
09.01.2011. Nacional - Beira Mar 0:0
07.12.2010. Nacional - Naval 2:1
12.11.2010. Nacional - Maritimo 0:0
31.10.2010. Nacional - Setubal 1:0
03.10.2010. Nacional - Portimonense 3:1

As You can see Nacional have four victories and two draws in the last six home matches. It is clear they are big favorites when playing at home, but even bigger when the opponent is in poor form like Leiria at the moment. That is why I believe Nacional will win at Estadio da Madeira in Funchal.