Rafael Nadal has been easing his way back from injury and his appearance in the Paribas Masters thus far have been nothing but unconvincing. In his two previous matches, he survived a total of six match points to defeat Robredo and Almagro. On both occasions, the man from Mallorca was tested deep into the third set, living on a knife edge each time. But I do believe that as the tournament progresses, the world number two will gradually gain in confidence as he would be more accustomed to life back on the courts. Moreover, the incentive of toppling Federer of the number one spot is a huge bonus for Nadal, with only two events remaining in the calendar year.

Tsonga has to successfully defend his crown in Gerflor to qualify for the final spot in London but I do think he will miss out. The uphill task would be too insurmountable for him and given his mediocre record against the big guns, he will probably lose out to Nadal. On head to head records, the Spaniard is 3-1 against the Frenchman and although it has been pretty close all this while, I expect the number two seed to prevail. The mouthwatering odds for Nadal is just too tempting to resist!

Pick: Nadal @2.56